In a recent Dwyer article I read, Gary Payton, one of the greatest defenders ever, was complaining about today's NBA. This isn't unusual, as many retired greats spend their free-time denigrating the current-generation of players, and by extension, elevating their own "glory days". Payton's complaint in question wasn't even a new one. Essentially, he was alleging that his "generation" endured physical perimeter-defense without the escape of Free-Throws; an escape today's player's apparently have. I decided to test that claim, or at least a portion of it.
"Peyton's Postulate" says that the guard of yester-year endured a more physical defense then the guard of today, but was rewarded with equal or less amounts of Free-Throws. To test this, I tabulated the average Free-Throw-Rate (FTR) among perimeter players (PG/SG/SF), for every season dating back to 1980. I plotted out the results, and tried to analyze any obvious trends.
* The table is messy. Stare at it long enough, and you will understand.
* I Identified 4 significant trends, which I labeled, and addressed in turn below.
"Peyton's Postulate" says that the guard of yester-year endured a more physical defense then the guard of today, but was rewarded with equal or less amounts of Free-Throws. To test this, I tabulated the average Free-Throw-Rate (FTR) among perimeter players (PG/SG/SF), for every season dating back to 1980. I plotted out the results, and tried to analyze any obvious trends.
* The table is messy. Stare at it long enough, and you will understand.
* I Identified 4 significant trends, which I labeled, and addressed in turn below.
1.) 1980-1996 = Steady FTR. This "era" saw the inclusion of the 3-Point Line in 1980, and a medley of rules preventing "zone-defenses". "Physical Defense" was all the rage, with the first check against hand-checking (!) not introduced until 1995, though this seemed to have little effect.
2.) 1996-2004 = Plummeting FTR. This era is infamous for offensive ineptitude and the resulting lack of aesthetic appeal. The falling FTR captures this, as perimeter players struggled to get to the line. This is somewhat strange, as this era was subject to many rule-changes aimed at curtailing hand-checking. However, zone-defense restrictions were also relaxed, which likely led to more advanced defensive-schemes, which likely made it harder for guards/wings to draw fouls for Free-Throw-Attempts.
3.) 2005-2007 = Rising FTR. The FTR for perimeter players soared during this period, which is usually attributed to the NBA's increased emphasis on eliminating the hand-check. I agree with this sentiment, though it also helped that guys like LeBron/Wade/Melo/CP3/Derron/Roy entered the league.
4.) 2008-2013 = Plummeting FTR (Again). This era saw no major rule changes or flux in perimeter talent, so why did the average FTR drop? If I had to guess, I would blame two things. The first, would be the emergence of Thibodeau's "revolutionary" strong-side-zone defensive system, which discourages direct drives to the basket. The second factor, would be the increased use of the 3-Point-Shot, a play that rarely leads to Free-Throws.
To recap, I think we've undermined Payton's Postulate. His era (the 90's) seemed to face a more physical perimeter defense, but was rewarded with more Free-Throw's, relative to the player of today. The low FTR for perimeter players post-2007 seems to be partly self-inflicted (higher 3-Point Rate), and partly due to rule-changes (advanced zone defenses). I could probably take this farther by charting 3-Point-Rate and general Offensive Rating for perimeter players, to really flesh-out the changes across eras/seasons.
Special thanks to Basketball Reference's Play Index and this list of NBA Rule Changes.
2.) 1996-2004 = Plummeting FTR. This era is infamous for offensive ineptitude and the resulting lack of aesthetic appeal. The falling FTR captures this, as perimeter players struggled to get to the line. This is somewhat strange, as this era was subject to many rule-changes aimed at curtailing hand-checking. However, zone-defense restrictions were also relaxed, which likely led to more advanced defensive-schemes, which likely made it harder for guards/wings to draw fouls for Free-Throw-Attempts.
3.) 2005-2007 = Rising FTR. The FTR for perimeter players soared during this period, which is usually attributed to the NBA's increased emphasis on eliminating the hand-check. I agree with this sentiment, though it also helped that guys like LeBron/Wade/Melo/CP3/Derron/Roy entered the league.
4.) 2008-2013 = Plummeting FTR (Again). This era saw no major rule changes or flux in perimeter talent, so why did the average FTR drop? If I had to guess, I would blame two things. The first, would be the emergence of Thibodeau's "revolutionary" strong-side-zone defensive system, which discourages direct drives to the basket. The second factor, would be the increased use of the 3-Point-Shot, a play that rarely leads to Free-Throws.
To recap, I think we've undermined Payton's Postulate. His era (the 90's) seemed to face a more physical perimeter defense, but was rewarded with more Free-Throw's, relative to the player of today. The low FTR for perimeter players post-2007 seems to be partly self-inflicted (higher 3-Point Rate), and partly due to rule-changes (advanced zone defenses). I could probably take this farther by charting 3-Point-Rate and general Offensive Rating for perimeter players, to really flesh-out the changes across eras/seasons.
Special thanks to Basketball Reference's Play Index and this list of NBA Rule Changes.