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Kawhi Leonard's Historical Finals MPV

6/17/2014

The San Antonio Spurs won the 2014 NBA Championship, my beloved Miami Heat lost, and I feel sad. That said, this Spurs team was clearly in a class of its own, and I just couldn't help but smile as the Pop/Timmy/Manu/Tony quartet hoisted another trophy. The young Kawhi Leonard also hoisted some hardware this past weekend, specifically, the Finals MVP trophy. Therefore, its only proper that I use my HDR (RAPM-SPM) metric to see if this accolade was deserved, and how Kawhi's Finals performance ranked historically.

As you may (or may not) have known, Kawhi Leonard is the third youngest Finals MVP in history. He also won this prestigious award on Father's Day, six years after his father was shot and killed. Oh, and Kevin Durant thinks Leonard's success is a little overrated (he's actually right). Okay, now that I got niceties out of the way, let's see some numbers.

If you need a review of my HDR, click the orange link in the first paragraph. Just know that its better then pretty much any box-score metric out there, except for similar derivatives like ASPM and Estimated Impact. Players are ranked by per-game production (HDR-PG), with their per-minute numbers listed on the left (HDR-48).

Top 30 NBA Finals Performances (2000-2014)

As depicted by the table above, Kawhi was awesome this year. His per-game production ranks 9th, while his per-minute rating ranks 4th. Leonard clearly deserved Finals MVP, and though his numbers may look relatively pedestrian at first glance, his overall impact was tremendous.

- LeBron didn't rate too badly either, ranking 22nd in per-game production. Its a shame his team was so terrible.

- Dwyane Wade and Norris Cole each had a rating of -2.1 per game this Finals, ranking in the bottom five (along with 2005 Tony Parker) of qualified Finals performances since 2000.

At some point in my life before I die (knock on wood), I will log the Finals Ratings for the 1980-1990 seasons.

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2014 HDR NBA Playoff Ratings (RAPM-SPM) Updated Through 6/11/14

4/21/2014

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The first weekend of the NBA Playoffs is over, meaning this is an ideal time to post some player ratings. As before, these ratings are based on my free-flowing HDR metric, which is a RAPM based SPM metric. For those who don't know what the heck that means, click here for the basic idea. For details on what HDR is, and how it compares to other metrics, click here.

I've tweaked the formula since last time, in large-part, to make HDR easier to calculate during the Playoffs. I'm using raw True-Shooting-Attempts (TSA) instead of breaking down shots by location (3's/2's/FT's), but I've compensated for this by adding 3-Point-Attempt-Rate, to ensure valued floor-spacers aren't being unduly undercut. I've removed personal-fouls, and replaced pace-adjusted Turnovers with TOV%. I've also replaced pace-adjusted Assists with a AST% x TSA term, which helped the correlation. This is intuitive, as players who shoot more tend to be the "shot-creators", who draw extra defensive attention, making their assists more likely to "matter". I've also added points produced (derived from TSA and TS%).

The correlation to long-sample RAPM is still 61%, making it (in my opinion) a "better" metric then any except for other RAPM-SPM metrics (Estimated Impact or ASPM). I'm not counting XRAPM/RPM, as its a regular-season stat only.

Below is a table for the Top-30 Players in terms of HDR-Per-Game (HDR-PG) for the Playoffs. Their per-minute HDR is listed at the left (HDR-48), and ratings are adjusted for strength of opponent, using regular-season SRS.

I've broken down Playoff-HDR-Leaders by round, as well as their overall combined score. Splits by round, and the overall ratings, can be found under the "Playoff" tab at the left, while the overall ratings will also be posted on this front article.

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The Phoenix Suns and Playoff "Injustice"

4/14/2014

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I rarely post anything that doesn't involve some form of statistical analysis, but I feel like this needs to be said. All year long, pundits have lamented the injustice of the NBA Playoffs. Specifically, the fact that a couple "alright" West-teams will miss the Playoffs (like every other year), while a couple "terrible" East-teams will make the Playoffs (like every other year). As the season draws to a close, this narrative has coalesced around the Phoenix-Suns, a 47-win team who may not make the Playoffs. The feeling that this constitutes some grave injustice was recently articulated by Ethan Sherwood Strauss, whose article I must credit for breaking the Camel's (me) back.

My position, which I will articulate below, can be summarized as such. The inclusion of the Phoenix Suns, and teams like them, won't increase league popularity or alter the results of the Playoffs. Therefore, we'd do better to avoid unnecessary rule-changes or narrative building.

The first major issue raised when discussing the "tragedy" of the Phoenix Suns, is how "exciting/compelling" they are, and therefore, what a shame it is they'll miss the Playoffs. Strauss echoes these sentiments in his piece, describing how, "Dragic traverses a full NBA court in the time it takes normal people to sprint across their living rooms...Eric Bledsoe makes 'The Dragon' look slow.". He continues by alluding to improved Suns players who were once bad, but are now merely mediocre, as well as surprise MVP-candidate Goran Dragic. For reasonable observers, the proper reaction to this malarkey should be, "So what?".

Who cares if the Suns can be exciting, if they have improved players, and if Bledsoe can jump high? The answer is "nobody", and that's the issue. Aside from the residents of Phoenix, and "League Pass addicts" as Strauss accurately describes, no one cares about the Phoenix Suns. The casual sports/NBA fan (who the league is desperately trying to court) makes little distinction between the "compelling" Phoenix Suns, and the abysmal Atlanta Hawks. Both are seen as cannon-fodder for top contenders, not teams worthy of a Friday afternoon. This isn't a deficiency unique to the Suns, but to most fringe Playoff teams. If you aren't a contender, don't have a top-star, and aren't in a large-market, then you aren't relevant.

A second canard that is often mentioned, is the idea that the Phoenix Suns (and teams like them), have a legitimate chance of upsetting a top seed. To quote Strauss, "...this is really a shame because the Suns are a rare lottery team that could actually matter if thrown into the postseason. High-variance squads like the Suns are the bane of favorites. Three-pointers are ammunition for David’s sling and give a team like the Suns a chance at beating a superior opponent over the course of a series.". The appropriate response to this point is, "Not really".

Since the 1998 season (modern era), the #7 and #8 seeds have won 4 opening-round-upsets, meaning roughly 6.7%. However, this is an inflated figure when looking at each upset in turn.

- The #7 Spurs defeated the the #2 Mavs in 2010, but despite being 5-wins worse in the regular season, the Spurs outranked the Mavs in raw Point Differential and SRS (Differential adjusted for Strength of Schedule). This would generally indicate that the Spurs were a better team then the Mavs, meaning, this series was not a true upset.

- The #8 Grizzlies upset the #1 Spurs in 2011, but this too was an asterisk win. Manu Ginobli was in-and-out of that series with a broken arm, and according to the most reliable of NBA metrics, was the Spurs' best per-minute player. Conversely, the Grizzlies were without Rudy Gay, freeing up minutes for the superior Shane Battier, and allowing Memphis to play their dominant inside-inside style.

- The #8 Sixers defeated the #1 Bulls in 2012, but as most fans know, this was only due to Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah missing most of the series with injuries.

This leaves only one acceptable "upset" out of 60 tries, which translates to a 1.6% chance. This is to be expected, and is one of the reasons casual sports fans don't care to watch these types of series. It doesn't matter how free-wheeling and 3-Point-Variant the Suns are; they won't beat a top seed 4/7 of the time. As a loose comparison, the 2013 Rockets were essentially the 2014 Suns, and yet for all their 3-Point-Rate records, Harden/Asik duo, and "variance", they were soundly defeated by the Thunder.

This post is already far too long, and far too wordy, so I'll end here. The fact that the Suns (and teams like them) don't make the Playoffs every year isn't a major injustice. These teams (generally) would not generate additional popularity and/or win a series.

*This post is in no way a shot at Ethan Sherwood Strauss. He's one of my favorite writers and follows on Twitter, but as he most clearly articulated this narrative that's been building all season, I thought it would be useful to reference his piece.

Apologies for any spelling/grammar mistakes, as I usually don't post so many words with so few tables/graphs.

Thanks to Sporting Charts

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NBA Finals Ratings Revised via RAPM-SPM

3/23/2014

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A little while ago I set out to rank the greatest NBA Finals Performances using Alternate Win Score (AWS). The motivation (aside from interest) was simple. It hadn't been done (aside from PER and Game-Score), and when adjusting for pace and strength-of-opponent, I was certain my new rankings would be the best available (and they were).

However, though AWS is clearly a better metric then PER or Game-Score, it still has significant limitations. I wanted a new/better box-score metric, and so I decided to derive one. Using 8-year-long-sample RAPM data from Jeremiah Englemann (posted by Daniel Myers), I created a new SPM-metric I'm calling HDR. For details on what SPM is and how I basically derived it, see this page.

For those who are already privy to this stats-stuff, here's the lowdown. My HDR-SPM is constructed like AWS, except Offensive/Defensive rebounds are replaced by percentages, as are Blocks with BLK%. I don't use points scored, but shots made/missed, broken down by 3's, 2's, and FT's. Defensive Rating and Minutes-per-Game are added on as well, and the whole thing is per-48 minutes/per-100 possessions. The weights were determined by simple multi-linear-regression, and tested for accuracy via weighted-correlation with the RAPM sample. Here's a table for reference.

As depicted by the table above, HDR does quite well. If scaled to team efficiency, and constructed using offensive/defensive splits, it could be better, but that would be pointless. The NBA community already has ASPM, Estimated Impact, and Englemann's new SPM. I just want a simple linear box-score metric with which to evaluate a single/stretch of games, and I think I have one that's among the best. HDR also has a 94% correlation to in-season point-differential (team-level), without any team-adjustment.

I'll have more on HDR later, but for now, let's get to the NBA-Finals Ratings. The idea is the same as last time. Scores are minute/pace adjusted, and adjusted for strength of opponent. I previously used Opponent-AWS-Allowed as the basis for opponent-adjustment, but I am now using the regular-season SRS to determine "strength" of opponent. Ratings include the 2000-2013 Finals, and rank the Top 30 by Per-Game production.

- Dwyane Wade wins the 2000's, but I have a feeling a few 90's Finals-Performances will trump him (which I'll post ASAP).

- I'm still tweaking HDR, both in terms of the weights, and what type of metric I want it to be (should it include Defensive Rating?) but I plan on posting the formula ASAP.

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Breaking Down Miami's Recent Struggles

3/15/2014

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"The world is better now since the Heat is losing."
- Dwyane Wade

The Miami Heat are a great basketball team. Arguably,the best basketball team, when healthy and engaged. However, after losing five of their last six games, even LeBron James is starting to worry. As the world crumbles around the Heat for what seems to be the 100th time since 2011, I set out to shed some light on their recent struggles.

Miami has lost 5 of their last 6 games, and in that span, they have logged a Defensive Rating of 109.7 (3.2 points worse then their 106.5 average of their first 57 games). That's bad, but what's been even worse for Miami, is their offense. They've averaged a 104.3 Offensive Rating these past 6 games, 9.2 points worse then their previous average of 113.5, which lead the league.

With that in mind, I made up some tables depicting how/where Miami has fallen off, when comparing their first 57 games, to their previous 6. The last row on each table, titled "Comparison", gives a percentage relating the Heat's performance during their 6-game fail, to their first 57. A percentage less than 100 indicates a recent drop-off, while a value above 100 means Miami has actually improved.

Miami Heat Opponent Stats

I don't want to spend a lot of time on defense, because in truth, its rather nebulous (due in part to Miami's admitted apathy). Just know that Miami hasn't been forcing enough Turnovers, and hasn't been defending the 3-Point line. They can live with the latter, not the former.

On an individual basis, its difficult to accurately determine the extent to which certain players are helping/hurting the defense . Looking at RAPM, RAPM, and ASPM, I would say Birdman, Bosh, Chalmers, and Wade are helping, Battier and LeBron are about average, and everyone else is terrible.

Miami Heat Team Stats

As depicted by the above table, during this 6-game-fail, Miami has only played above average with respect to AST% (not a major factor in team success) and FT% (offset by their plummeting Free-Throw-Attempt-Rate). The rest of their offense has largely been a struggle. The two major factors that jump out however, are 3-FG% and 2-FG%, areas where Miami usually dominates. I looked at the major 3-Pt and 2-Pt shooters for Miami, to see where the drop-off is occurring.

Miami Heat 3-Point% Dropoff

Miami Heat 2-Point% Dropoff

The 3-Pointer, both the shot itself and its very threat, is arguably Miami's most potent weapon, one they've built their offense around. These past 6 games, it has failed them. Ray Allen has broken out of his slump, but that miracle has been more then offset by Cole, LeBron, and Battier.
The story with the 2-Pointer is similar, with Bosh converting at a high rate, and LeBron and Chalmers completely falling off.

When looking at the major trends hurting the Heat (general defense and EFG%), its somewhat surprising seeing LeBron at the root of these issues. To be sure, he's not THE reason Miami is currently failing, nor the only major one. However, when looking at his year-long defensive ineptitude (via APM -variants), his recent shooting slump, and the large number of possession he uses, its clear that LeBron's play has been a major hurdle to Miami's success (these past 6 games).

Miami's defense has been "meh" all season. A large part of this is do to apathy, age, and as portrayed by BBallBreakdown, systematic errors. However, what has led to this recent "collapse", is the collapse of Miami's elite offense. We could spend a lot of time talking ways and means, but in essence, Miami just needs to shoot better. LeBron in particular needs to play better, and role players have to knock down the shots he creates for them.

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<< Previous

Kawhi Leonard's Historical Finals MPV

Top 30 NBA Finals Performances (2000-2014)

2014 HDR NBA Playoff Ratings (RAPM-SPM) *Updated Through 6/11/14*

The Phoenix Suns and Playoff "Injustice"

NBA Finals Ratings Revised via RAPM-SPM

Breaking Down Miami's Recent Struggles

Miami Heat Opponent Stats

Miami Heat Team Stats

Miami Heat 3-Point% Dropoff

Miami Heat 2-Point% Dropoff

Good Stuff

2014 HDR NBA Playoff Ratings (RAPM-SPM) Updated Through 6/11/14