"The world is better now since the Heat is losing."
- Dwyane Wade
The Miami Heat are a great basketball team. Arguably,the best basketball team, when healthy and engaged. However, after losing five of their last six games, even LeBron James is starting to worry. As the world crumbles around the Heat for what seems to be the 100th time since 2011, I set out to shed some light on their recent struggles.
Miami has lost 5 of their last 6 games, and in that span, they have logged a Defensive Rating of 109.7 (3.2 points worse then their 106.5 average of their first 57 games). That's bad, but what's been even worse for Miami, is their offense. They've averaged a 104.3 Offensive Rating these past 6 games, 9.2 points worse then their previous average of 113.5, which lead the league.
With that in mind, I made up some tables depicting how/where Miami has fallen off, when comparing their first 57 games, to their previous 6. The last row on each table, titled "Comparison", gives a percentage relating the Heat's performance during their 6-game fail, to their first 57. A percentage less than 100 indicates a recent drop-off, while a value above 100 means Miami has actually improved.
- Dwyane Wade
The Miami Heat are a great basketball team. Arguably,the best basketball team, when healthy and engaged. However, after losing five of their last six games, even LeBron James is starting to worry. As the world crumbles around the Heat for what seems to be the 100th time since 2011, I set out to shed some light on their recent struggles.
Miami has lost 5 of their last 6 games, and in that span, they have logged a Defensive Rating of 109.7 (3.2 points worse then their 106.5 average of their first 57 games). That's bad, but what's been even worse for Miami, is their offense. They've averaged a 104.3 Offensive Rating these past 6 games, 9.2 points worse then their previous average of 113.5, which lead the league.
With that in mind, I made up some tables depicting how/where Miami has fallen off, when comparing their first 57 games, to their previous 6. The last row on each table, titled "Comparison", gives a percentage relating the Heat's performance during their 6-game fail, to their first 57. A percentage less than 100 indicates a recent drop-off, while a value above 100 means Miami has actually improved.
Miami Heat Opponent Stats
I don't want to spend a lot of time on defense, because in truth, its rather nebulous (due in part to Miami's admitted apathy). Just know that Miami hasn't been forcing enough Turnovers, and hasn't been defending the 3-Point line. They can live with the latter, not the former.
On an individual basis, its difficult to accurately determine the extent to which certain players are helping/hurting the defense . Looking at RAPM, RAPM, and ASPM, I would say Birdman, Bosh, Chalmers, and Wade are helping, Battier and LeBron are about average, and everyone else is terrible.
On an individual basis, its difficult to accurately determine the extent to which certain players are helping/hurting the defense . Looking at RAPM, RAPM, and ASPM, I would say Birdman, Bosh, Chalmers, and Wade are helping, Battier and LeBron are about average, and everyone else is terrible.
Miami Heat Team Stats
As depicted by the above table, during this 6-game-fail, Miami has only played above average with respect to AST% (not a major factor in team success) and FT% (offset by their plummeting Free-Throw-Attempt-Rate). The rest of their offense has largely been a struggle. The two major factors that jump out however, are 3-FG% and 2-FG%, areas where Miami usually dominates. I looked at the major 3-Pt and 2-Pt shooters for Miami, to see where the drop-off is occurring.
Miami Heat 3-Point% Dropoff
Miami Heat 2-Point% Dropoff
The 3-Pointer, both the shot itself and its very threat, is arguably Miami's most potent weapon, one they've built their offense around. These past 6 games, it has failed them. Ray Allen has broken out of his slump, but that miracle has been more then offset by Cole, LeBron, and Battier.
The story with the 2-Pointer is similar, with Bosh converting at a high rate, and LeBron and Chalmers completely falling off.
When looking at the major trends hurting the Heat (general defense and EFG%), its somewhat surprising seeing LeBron at the root of these issues. To be sure, he's not THE reason Miami is currently failing, nor the only major one. However, when looking at his year-long defensive ineptitude (via APM -variants), his recent shooting slump, and the large number of possession he uses, its clear that LeBron's play has been a major hurdle to Miami's success (these past 6 games).
Miami's defense has been "meh" all season. A large part of this is do to apathy, age, and as portrayed by BBallBreakdown, systematic errors. However, what has led to this recent "collapse", is the collapse of Miami's elite offense. We could spend a lot of time talking ways and means, but in essence, Miami just needs to shoot better. LeBron in particular needs to play better, and role players have to knock down the shots he creates for them.
The story with the 2-Pointer is similar, with Bosh converting at a high rate, and LeBron and Chalmers completely falling off.
When looking at the major trends hurting the Heat (general defense and EFG%), its somewhat surprising seeing LeBron at the root of these issues. To be sure, he's not THE reason Miami is currently failing, nor the only major one. However, when looking at his year-long defensive ineptitude (via APM -variants), his recent shooting slump, and the large number of possession he uses, its clear that LeBron's play has been a major hurdle to Miami's success (these past 6 games).
Miami's defense has been "meh" all season. A large part of this is do to apathy, age, and as portrayed by BBallBreakdown, systematic errors. However, what has led to this recent "collapse", is the collapse of Miami's elite offense. We could spend a lot of time talking ways and means, but in essence, Miami just needs to shoot better. LeBron in particular needs to play better, and role players have to knock down the shots he creates for them.