Miami is currently the favorite, and for good reason. LeBron is once again playing out of his mind, and shows no signs of slowing down any time soon. Wade and Bosh are playing extremely efficient basketball, albeit in alternating spurts. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis have bolstered Miami's offense, taking them from a rank of 6th in 2012 to 2nd in 2013 (Hoopdata). The only troubling signs for the Heat seem to be in their rebounding and defense. These can be largely ignored, since both defense and rebounding require a consistent effort,and the Heat have basically told us we won't get a consistent effort from them until the Playoffs role around. When you are the champs, you get to do these kinds of things.
The Clippers have to be number two. They are literally 12 deep, and could very possibly play all 12 guys in the Playoffs, in order to preserve CP3 and Blake for the later rounds. They currently boast the 3rd highest efficiency differential (offense + defense), as well as the most effective back court tandem in the league (CP3 and Bledsoe). There are only two things I see keeping the Clippers from an NBA Finals appearance. Chris Paul is injury prone, and if he is not operating at 100%, the Clips don't have a chance to pull through the West. Also, I worry about what a coach like Popovich would do to Vinny in a 7 game series. Other then that however, this team looks like a machine, and with a little luck, will be representing the Western Conference in June.
What?! The Chicago Bulls are ahead of Spurs and Thunder?! Yes, and here's why. A fully integrated (not quite yet) and fully healthy (not quite yet) Bulls team is easily the best defensive team in the league. Their defense isn't based upon blinding athleticism (Miami) or individual talent (Clippers), but a system that forces its opponents into bad shots consistently. They have the potential to pound teams (Miami) on the glass, to the point where it doesn't matter that they aren't offensively lethal, because they get enough second chance points to make up for it. I have only one concern for this squad. They are much easier for Miami to guard with Rose then without. Rose is a ball-stopper,and while he is a great player, the only way to beat Miami's defense is with ball movement (see 2011 Mavericks or Roseless Bulls). Whether through his fault or Thibs, Rose made it very easy for Miami to guard Chicago in 2011, and I fear the same could happen in the ECF this year.
I suppose I should offer a quick explanation for why the Thunder/Spurs/Grizzlies/Knicks didn't make it into the pantheon.
- The Thunder without James Harden get swept by the Spurs in 2012. The Thunder don't have James Harden, Durant hasn't improved, and Westbrook may actually be regressing.
- The Grizzlies have talent, but their trio of Gasol/Gay/Randolph clashes early and often during games, which is why they are one of the 10 worst teams in the league offensively. That won't cut it in the West this year.
- The Spurs were tough to leave out, but they simply don't have enough. Blake/CP3/Bench > Duncan/Parker/Bench by a lot, and in a league where stars win titles, the Clippers are winning this series.
- The Knicks are currently ranked 13th in defense (yikes), and teams seem to have realized that if you take away their three pointers, that only Carmelo can do any damage inside.
Well that's it for now. Its a long season and many things can/will change, but as it stands, only the Heat, Clippers, and Bulls stand a real chance of bringing home the hardware in June.