I regressed and charted shot locations for every team based on usage percentage, field goal percentage, attempts, makes, and misses. Misses proved to be the most fruitful, and I am fairly confident that 30% of all defensive rebounds collected last season were dependent on the opponent's shot selection. This leaves roughly 70% to a combination of skill, systems, luck, and effort. To those who watch NBA games with any consistency, these numbers shouldn't seem to surprising
Though I'm not quite finished, I decided to go a step further as a teaser for upcoming posts. I assumed that 30% of defensive rebounding rate is determined by the opposition's shot selection. Therefore, we can say that teams who have an above average defensive rebounding rate (DRR), even when the shot selection says they should be below average, have skilled rebounders (and visa versa).
Teams with skilled rebounders:
Toronto-Miami-Dallas-Houston-New York-Denver-Utah
Teams with crappy (un-skilled) rebounders:
Detroit-Indiana-New Jersey-Phoenix
* It would seem Bosh-LeBron-Wade are better rebounders then Hibbert-West-George
I will probably do another post where I break down which teams benefit the most from "skilled" rebounders, and which teams are hurt the most by "un-skilled" rebounders. This topic intrigues me, as with a bit more work, we may actually be able to determine which players are overrated rebounders, underrated, or just "rated" rebounders.