At long last, the 2013-2014 NBA season is upon us. There will be no Head to Head matchup this week, as I was furiously cobbling together a respectable projection system. Here's the gist of it.
I used a weighted blend of PER, Win Shares, XRAPM, Wins Produced, and ASPM. Basically, it was something similar to the Blend Player Ratings shown at the left, but with different weights, more suited to predicting wins then explaining them. I gave all rookies the league average rating (0), unless they were projected to play more then 1,000 minutes, in which case I determined some sort of rating for them. I'm not saying how, because it wasn't very scientific, but it seemed to be in line with the majority of rookie projections, so whatever.
I used a weighted blend of PER, Win Shares, XRAPM, Wins Produced, and ASPM. Basically, it was something similar to the Blend Player Ratings shown at the left, but with different weights, more suited to predicting wins then explaining them. I gave all rookies the league average rating (0), unless they were projected to play more then 1,000 minutes, in which case I determined some sort of rating for them. I'm not saying how, because it wasn't very scientific, but it seemed to be in line with the majority of rookie projections, so whatever.
Projected Eastern Conference Standings
Projected Western Conference Standings
I scaled the ratings so every team falls into the 20-60 win range. Its just statistically prudent to be there, even if a couple teams will likely fall outside those bounds.
Based on the other projections I've seen over at APBR and BoxScoreGeeks, a few things jump out from my model.
I project the Wizards to be a pretty good basketball team. John Wall was exceptional after returning from injury last year, and the Wizards responded by playing .500 ball. Gortat will help, and Beal could be a star in the making.
I'm pretty in-between on Indiana and New York. A few analysts think they'll be 50+ win teams, a few think they'll be around the 40 range. My model says both teams will be in the mid-high 40's, which seems reasonable.
Projecting Cleveland and Minnesota was a mess.
Denver surprisingly looks like they could make the Playoffs. I thought the Iggy-escape would cripple their rating, but I guess not.
The Lakers and Celtics will be terrible this year. Doc Rivers better not screw up the Clippers.
The West has 6 title contenders, the East has 3. BUT, the East has (arguably) the best 2.
That's all for now. The NBA is upon us, so rejoice, prep your couch and television set, and get any homework done ahead of time (for procrastinators like me).
Based on the other projections I've seen over at APBR and BoxScoreGeeks, a few things jump out from my model.
I project the Wizards to be a pretty good basketball team. John Wall was exceptional after returning from injury last year, and the Wizards responded by playing .500 ball. Gortat will help, and Beal could be a star in the making.
I'm pretty in-between on Indiana and New York. A few analysts think they'll be 50+ win teams, a few think they'll be around the 40 range. My model says both teams will be in the mid-high 40's, which seems reasonable.
Projecting Cleveland and Minnesota was a mess.
Denver surprisingly looks like they could make the Playoffs. I thought the Iggy-escape would cripple their rating, but I guess not.
The Lakers and Celtics will be terrible this year. Doc Rivers better not screw up the Clippers.
The West has 6 title contenders, the East has 3. BUT, the East has (arguably) the best 2.
That's all for now. The NBA is upon us, so rejoice, prep your couch and television set, and get any homework done ahead of time (for procrastinators like me).