One of the major narratives for this year's NBA season seems to be Kevin Durant and his alleged improvement. The idea here, is that Kevin Durant wasn't quite good enough to win the MVP last year, but this year his all around game has really come into form, and he may actually win the prestigious award. This is baloney. Durant has only slightly improved, if at all.
On the surface, is would seem that Kevin Durant's scoring prowess has increased. He averaged 1.43 PPS (Points per Shot) in the 2011-2012 season, compared to 1.57 PPS this year. This is primarily due to Durant's increase in True Shooting Percentage, which jumped from 61.0% in 2011-2012 to 64.8% this year. However, the percentage of Durant's assisted shots have also increased, from 48% in 2011-2012, to a startling 58% this year. According to 82 games, assisted shots have roughly a 15% greater chance of going in then un-assisted shots, which helps explain Durant's shooting percentage increase. The implication being, that Durant hasn't actually become a more effective scorer, he's just getting set up more by Russel Westbrook, whose passing game is improved considerably.
Next we'll look at rebounding, one of the areas where Durant has supposedly made lots of progress. Before we get into the actual numbers, I have to say this. Kevin Durant is roughly 6'11 with 50 foot arms. He SHOULD be averaging much more rebounds then he does. Okay, got it off my chest, here we go.
Durant had a total rebounding rate of 11.8 in 2011-2012. His current total rebounding rate for 2013 is 11.7. He hasn't become a better rebounder. He is simply playing more minutes and logging more time at power forward then he was last year.
Another area where Durant has supposedly made great strides, is in his passing game. His assist rate is certainly up from last season, however another trend emerges when we look deeper. Durant currently has a passer rating (via 82games) of 4.1, which is abysmal for a player of his caliber. Last year, he had a rating of 4.5. What's the difference? Durant is averaging more assists then in 2011-2012, however he has also thrown more bad passes (turnovers). He's actually thrown so many, that is has more then negated his increased assist total, and has rendered him an even less effective passer then last year. Durant has clearly not improved when it comes to facilitating for others.
The last category that will be examined here is defense. Durant was fairly average last year, and he looks to be fairly average this year. According to Synergy, he is actually defending worse then in 2011-2012, but we can excuse that. His low score in isolation defense is dragging him down, and this is partially due to him taking increasingly difficult assignments. While its encouraging to see him take more responsibility and guard PF's like Love, he isn't really doing it well. We'll call defense a wash.
Kevin Durant while certainly elite, hasn't really improved, and if he has its been marginal. His general stats are inflated by increased playing time and usage, but he's not anymore effective then he was last year. While there is always time for that to change, he shouldn't be leading any MVP discussions at least while CP3 and King James are still breathing.
On the surface, is would seem that Kevin Durant's scoring prowess has increased. He averaged 1.43 PPS (Points per Shot) in the 2011-2012 season, compared to 1.57 PPS this year. This is primarily due to Durant's increase in True Shooting Percentage, which jumped from 61.0% in 2011-2012 to 64.8% this year. However, the percentage of Durant's assisted shots have also increased, from 48% in 2011-2012, to a startling 58% this year. According to 82 games, assisted shots have roughly a 15% greater chance of going in then un-assisted shots, which helps explain Durant's shooting percentage increase. The implication being, that Durant hasn't actually become a more effective scorer, he's just getting set up more by Russel Westbrook, whose passing game is improved considerably.
Next we'll look at rebounding, one of the areas where Durant has supposedly made lots of progress. Before we get into the actual numbers, I have to say this. Kevin Durant is roughly 6'11 with 50 foot arms. He SHOULD be averaging much more rebounds then he does. Okay, got it off my chest, here we go.
Durant had a total rebounding rate of 11.8 in 2011-2012. His current total rebounding rate for 2013 is 11.7. He hasn't become a better rebounder. He is simply playing more minutes and logging more time at power forward then he was last year.
Another area where Durant has supposedly made great strides, is in his passing game. His assist rate is certainly up from last season, however another trend emerges when we look deeper. Durant currently has a passer rating (via 82games) of 4.1, which is abysmal for a player of his caliber. Last year, he had a rating of 4.5. What's the difference? Durant is averaging more assists then in 2011-2012, however he has also thrown more bad passes (turnovers). He's actually thrown so many, that is has more then negated his increased assist total, and has rendered him an even less effective passer then last year. Durant has clearly not improved when it comes to facilitating for others.
The last category that will be examined here is defense. Durant was fairly average last year, and he looks to be fairly average this year. According to Synergy, he is actually defending worse then in 2011-2012, but we can excuse that. His low score in isolation defense is dragging him down, and this is partially due to him taking increasingly difficult assignments. While its encouraging to see him take more responsibility and guard PF's like Love, he isn't really doing it well. We'll call defense a wash.
Kevin Durant while certainly elite, hasn't really improved, and if he has its been marginal. His general stats are inflated by increased playing time and usage, but he's not anymore effective then he was last year. While there is always time for that to change, he shouldn't be leading any MVP discussions at least while CP3 and King James are still breathing.