Recently, I've noticed a lot of "how to beat the Heat" articles around the web. Most are complete nonsense, but others have some merit. I decided to take a cursory look at the issue, using an approach rooted in statistics.
The first step was to calculate the major rate stats for the Heat and their opponents, for every game they played in the 2013 season. I then regressed these values on the Heat's Offensive, Defensive, and Net Efficiency (Point Differential) for each respective game, to see what factors correlated to a Heat win, or loss.
I thought about using games dating all the way back to 2011, but the Heat have changed so much over the years, that the only relevant dataset seemed to be this past season.
The values in the table below indicate the strength of the correlation (0-100) between two factors. A large positive number indicates a strong correlation that's good for the Heat (high TS%=high Offensive Efficiency), while a large negative value indicates the opposite. Numbers near zero indicate no significant correlation.
The first step was to calculate the major rate stats for the Heat and their opponents, for every game they played in the 2013 season. I then regressed these values on the Heat's Offensive, Defensive, and Net Efficiency (Point Differential) for each respective game, to see what factors correlated to a Heat win, or loss.
I thought about using games dating all the way back to 2011, but the Heat have changed so much over the years, that the only relevant dataset seemed to be this past season.
The values in the table below indicate the strength of the correlation (0-100) between two factors. A large positive number indicates a strong correlation that's good for the Heat (high TS%=high Offensive Efficiency), while a large negative value indicates the opposite. Numbers near zero indicate no significant correlation.
A few takeaways from the above table.
The two major things a team can do to beat the Heat is shoot efficiently, and stop the Heat from doing the same. Though this is a no-brainer, its also extremely difficult.
The next best idea is another no-brainer. Don't turn the ball over. Although, judging by the stronger correlation to Steals then Opponent Turnovers, it would seem Miami would prefer to force live-ball turnovers.
Something to note, is the relative lack of influence rebounding has on the Heat's ability to win games. This is significant, as Miami's rebounding woes are frequently discussed, especially after games where the Heat may be outrebounded by as many as 30.
Another interesting tidbit. Fans of opposing teams usually detest Miami's ability to land free-throws, while seemingly preventing their teams from doing the same. However, both Miami and their opponent's Free-Throw Rates don't seem to significantly impact the game's outcome.
Its often said that great passing teams can exploit Miami's overaggressive defense. However, there doesn't seem to be a significant correlation between an opposing team having a high Assist-Percentage, and outscoring the Heat.
That's all for now. Hopefully it was informative. One should take care not to see this as the end all be all Miami cheat-sheet. There are many more layers that could be added to this study, before we would approach statistical certainty.
The two major things a team can do to beat the Heat is shoot efficiently, and stop the Heat from doing the same. Though this is a no-brainer, its also extremely difficult.
The next best idea is another no-brainer. Don't turn the ball over. Although, judging by the stronger correlation to Steals then Opponent Turnovers, it would seem Miami would prefer to force live-ball turnovers.
Something to note, is the relative lack of influence rebounding has on the Heat's ability to win games. This is significant, as Miami's rebounding woes are frequently discussed, especially after games where the Heat may be outrebounded by as many as 30.
Another interesting tidbit. Fans of opposing teams usually detest Miami's ability to land free-throws, while seemingly preventing their teams from doing the same. However, both Miami and their opponent's Free-Throw Rates don't seem to significantly impact the game's outcome.
Its often said that great passing teams can exploit Miami's overaggressive defense. However, there doesn't seem to be a significant correlation between an opposing team having a high Assist-Percentage, and outscoring the Heat.
That's all for now. Hopefully it was informative. One should take care not to see this as the end all be all Miami cheat-sheet. There are many more layers that could be added to this study, before we would approach statistical certainty.